tv Street Signs CNBC April 1, 2013 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
>> april is a great month for the market, normally. >> generally it is. great to be with you. that will be it for power lunch. >> "street signs" begins right now. ♪ ♪ sunday, monday happy days ♪ the weekend comes ♪ the cycle hums ♪ ready to race to you >> indeed these are happy days for investors. history says that we're in for a good year, right? the market truth coming up. no fooling. north korea, the first gee owe political threat we have faced in years. how much should we believe the almost bizarre threats? first, when does the drop in
price of something potentially mean bigger profits for you without a short sale? and what would have been a better investment? 100 bucks into dell's ipo or 100 bucks into apple's ipo? we'll sew you. bob, let's start off with you. a lot of historical hyperbole with you. history says it could be a good year. >> the economic stuff is very important. jobs numbers. we have a double whamy here today. still a defensive tone. not dramatically so.
more defensive names are holding up better. little wonder here, we had this mess in china. copper futures have been sitting at an eight month low. there is your eighth month low in copper. when you take a look at material names right now. iron our stocks. other kinds of names, these are coal stocks. ooil is down a little bit. some of the big drillers also to the downside. finally, s&p down first day in the quarter. if this happens, first time since 2011. back to you. >> more historical hyperbole.
rick, hearing a lot about bond fund managers dumping some bonds and buying equities. it's like going to the dark side. are you hearing that? >> i am. did you read david stockman's piece? >> i tell you what, i think there is a good argument to consider. we're down 23, 24 basis points since then. if you held your position from last year you're only down 7 basis points. if everybody vacates stocks, where do you any they will end up there, brian? >> the bond market, the mattress. gold, kbuns. >> i completely understand that 183 is uninteresting for a ten-year 75 basis points
who can forget loost year's spring swoom. the request is, what happens this year after a great q1? joining us? the chief investment officer at waiverly investment. jeff, you have written that you do not believe the spring swoon will be as severe as the last couple of years but we will have a spring swoon. >> i think we will get one. let's take a look at the historical time series. each of the last three years we had a great first quarter. and april marked the top of the market. there are several indicators that started to move ahead of the move in stocks.
actual results have started to disappoint. earnings estimates as well proved too high. once we got into the q1 earning season they had to come down. looking at expectations, consumer confidence, the vix, all of these things suggest a fragile market. think are all pointing to another spring slide. but maybe not as severe as we have seen before. >> jeff calling for a spring slide. do you agree or disagree? >> what's happening here shouldn't surprise anybody. the market takes some time to pause. you you can't go up every day. >> that's exactly right. now we're down a little bit. we see sideways down another month. but this is in the context of a
bullish long term set up. >> if we do drop three, five, ten percent, 20 percent, it's a longer term buying opportunity. >> this is the challenge of technical trading. rsh jeff. we know your short term view is down in the spring but is your longer term view in the upside? >> you definitely want to buy. buy the industrials and home builders. we know every bull market since ww ii has ended 17%. we're nowhere near that. very unlikely that we're finished with the cycle.
several years to go. >> earnings, adam, are my concern. we poo pooed europe a little bit. poo pooed cyprypru a little bit but earnings growth is slowing. that has me more worried than anything else. >> we're not worried. >> we see the flexuations in earnings are on sis tent. looking back 10, 20, 30 years. we are in our immediate term very bullish. >> let's say the earnings growth was flat. so no growth year-over-year. that wouldn't have you worried about equities? >> not in the long run. >> the push is there? >> jeff do you agree with that? >> no.
i'm worried about q3 and q4 where the expectations are in the double digits. i just don't see it. we will see the numbers coming down. very hard to get pes to rise in this environment. >> adam is agreeing with you. he didn't expect to see earnings growth but is not concerned about that because he believes the psychology of the investor is on our side. >> i'm not so sure.. we're going to hear corporate ceos that have to take down numbers. 10% earnings growth. just not achievable. globally of two, three, maybe four%. >> tell us what to do.
where do we put the money? >> where you put the money on this pull back. start buying in when you ire down 3 to 5%. >> buying what? the whole market? >> take a look. i think the whole market yes. we recently started to add to chinese equities after they corrected. we are back in late february started to add money to home builders. so you can find some of these rotating corrections in different areas of the market. >> adam? >> financials, consumer discretionary. could lead on a further rally. we're concerned about volatility. we have been short gold. >> you think gold is a bust? >> that's a whole separate conversation. >> you and i would agree on that. gold is over. >> let's say there is tremendous downside potential. this is a point where the risk favors if bears and i would be concerned to be aggressively
long gold. >> that's why bubbles burst faster. before i let you go, we will fight about these chinese techties. we are going one-on-one. sound good? >> look forward to it. >> on deck, trouble in korea. will the big thr thr from the little dictator really amount to anything? and later on, the answer to our riddle. what has been a better investment since the stock's ipo? apple or dell? we will show you coming up.
>> >> tensions rising in the korean peninsula. north korea saying that the peninsula it shares with the south is entering a, quote, state of war. so, are these threats just the usual rattling shake down to get money or food, or should we be taking these more seriously? the white house said today it is not seeing, quote, large scale mobilizations and positioning of forces by north korea. joining us now, ian brimmer. always great to get your insight. kim jong il was a madman but a known mad man. we don't know too much about his
son do we? >> we don't. we know he is 29 years old. we know he was educated in the west so he is certainly aware of the lies his regime is telling his own countryman about how horrible it is outside of his country. he understands that economic conditions outside of north korea are vastly better than his own. bewe don't understand his level of rationality and control. >> you know, when we look at the central news agency's english translations as i did today, the language is bizarre. they are obviously riling up local militia groups, basically threatening war. but should we read into the internals as much as we look at the externals? >> i think what we do need to understand is that all of these
acts of belij rans that we have seen which have certainly made lots and lots of headlines. the state of war, getting rid of the hot lines with south korea, threatening to end joint economic projects. targeting austin, texas. all of this is intended to get something from north korea. whether it's restarting u.s. diplomacy, diplomatic negotiations or more food aid or more cash. it's gotten nothing. nothing but a hand and military actions and joint activities by the u.s. and south korea. clearly whoever is calling the shots whether it's kim jong un by himself or some advisors in his family or the military, their strategy has been seen to fail. so the real question will be can they back off that and maintain stability of their own regime or will they feel the need if
they're in a corner to actually lash out and do something as opposed to the threats that so far have amounted in reality to very little. >> any kid on the schoolyard knows this. if you threaten to punch the bully, you had better punch the bully eventually because if you don't, they're going to know that you will never hit them. is he boxing himself into a corner by making these threats? if he doesn't do anything, won't his own people perceive him as weak? or is he already viewed as a chubby little guy. >> i'm less worried about his ability to propaganda. they can lie in different directions and paint it as a win. what they can't do is paint it as a win to the folks in and around the north korean regime that are betting their livelihoods on this guy in the military, in the political
leadership. if you make a mistake your life is over pretty quickly. these stakes are pretty high. if you say you're going to punch a bully, maybe you need to punch him or maybe you need to run away real fast or have someone drive you. they do still have support from the chinese. that is important. right now, i don't think you see many folks in the white house going to china and saying you know what? we want you to really cut these guys off. there is an understand in the united states that actually you need to maintain a little bit of breathing room for this regime. less things truly get out of control. >> totally different question before i let you go. i think we can all agree that when this leadership goes away, ain't nobody gonna be sad. that said when this does come to an end, the dictatorship ends, will south korea become the greatest place in the world to invest? >> not immediately.
the costs of that transition both in terms of reunification and the potential instability because china and the united states will have very different aspirations for what that reunified nuclear korea will become. there will be a lot of jockeying and potential fighting. it will be a hell of a lot more expensetive than re uniunificat of germany in 1990. i am surprised that the markets have not come off in south korea with all the bluster that we have seen so far. there is the potential of the north korean regime that we have seen so far. we worry all the time about that. we don't talk as much about this one. >> great point. potentially the biggest threat is the fact that everybody seems so sanguin about this.
>> if investors gets spooked, could that be good for us over here? courtney looking at the impacts or potential non-impacts. >> just the companies in korea. it's a little after 3:00 in the morning so we are looking at monday's trading. the costs become positive on monday. marking the first decline in six trading days. and a number of kout korean companies did sell off more than the broader market. take a look at shares. the largest automaker ended monday. the prices will be shown in south korean's currency. now like the korean automakers, samsung electronics shared a%. sam sung is also the biggest stock in the msci emerging in x index. fared a little better, about
four tenths of a%. now bucking the trend up about a percent right now. samsung life insurance, the largest provider in south korea joined in the sell off on monday. >> we will have to wait four or five more hours. >> i'm sure you will be awake for it. >> i will. >> up next, a darwin award in honor of mandy's australian vacation. and the answer to our other riddle. whether the drop in one thing's price means greater profits for you without shorting what's falling. we'll explain, we hope, coming up. the new new york? a new property tax cap... and the lowest middle class income tax rate in 60 years... and a billion dollars in tax breaks and incentives. new opportunities for business. over 250,000 new private sector jobs were created over the last two years.
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managers taking more bullish bets across the board. that momentum is certainly gaining traction. we're looking at the bullish commodity bets. and the same is true when it comes to oil. we have seen big gains there as well and speculators taking long positions and that has increased just last week. that was the biggest gain we had seen there in about three month's time. take a look at where we are. a lot of it is bullish folks wanting to see higher oil prices and betting that we would see it. the only good news is that prices are coming down a little at the pump. >> that is good news. while oil goes up, corn is collapsing. corn futures down to nine month lows today. if 97 million acres sounds like a lot, it is. that's how many acres farmers plan to plant this year and that, my friends, is a record. here is why you care.
corn is in pretty much, well, everything. cats catsup, soda, frozen pizza, hot dog buns, dry wall, varnish, adhesive, diapers. yes, diapers. not sure if that's before or after they are produced. all right, virginia, we know that there is a lot of something. >> we had continued water shed. anyone that was long corn is really out. so it's pushed it so far that i would have thought it was oversold about 30 cents ago but it continues to move down. it's down 55 cents today.
45 cents on thursday. it looks like there is no bottom in sight right now. i would think the market would have to take a rest and come back some. it does tell me that really the prices are moving somewhat lower. historically we are still high. but i think we have come off of our highs. >> there is a point what you just said, which i love. and i don't want to sound like an old farm hand. i remember that corn was about three bucks. >> correct. >> is this a down trend to three or buying opportunity back up to seven? >> i think that there will be some buying opportunities but i don't see the market really rallying any time soon. the range is starting to move lower. unless we have some extreme weather, that's really the only thing that is going to change the dynamic of the prices right now. the prices are pretty much set
now. we already know what the acreage is going to be and we know what the actual harvest was from last year. so there really isn't anything else to come into play unless we have severe weather. now that can happen. but until we actually get confirmation of that, we will see the market really staying down, corn definitely below the $7 level. >> you have got to answer our riddle before we let you go. when there is a drop in price in something mean greater profit for something out without shorting it. i will assume that lower corn prices since it is in everything including diapers means if you're a food company, this is good news. >> yes. i expect the demand on all of those products to really increase, including feed. feed for livestock. i expect that there will be a big boost in that across the board. >> virginia, thank you. a real pleasure. >> i have got some breaking news for you right now.
you are looking at live pictures from whdh. a large tanker has broken loose from its pier and has truck and damaged the pier. the tanker is at least 800 feet long and carrying fuel of some kind. the tide is coming in, folks. it is pushing the boat up against the bridge. got to get michelle in here. she is from boston and new hampshire. she will know how big of an artery perhaps that brig f bridge is. 800 foot long ship filled with fuel, broken loose pushing up against a bridge. not good news. that's breaking news. we will give you more as we know it. hopefully it will get off of that bridge sometime soon. i think i speak for all america when i say break out the tug boats. an oldie but a goody stock
hits an all time high. and apple celebrating a big time birthday today. do you want to invest 1000 bucks in apple or dell? which one would give you more money? think about that, the answer coming up. in today's markets, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades
>> a river between new hampshire and maine. that is an 800 foot tanker carrying fuel of some kind. not sure if it's gas, heating oil, it doesn't matter. it's a giant ship that has broken loose from its pier. the tide is pushing it up against the bridge. the tide is jamming the ship up against that bridge which is the old u.s. 1. the former maine to miami highway. you can obviously see, too, it is an elevated bridge. the ship was docked up. so a bit of a dire situation. the slip listing to the left.
that bridge has been slated to be replaced. that's on my two minute research fact check. we're going to continue to show video of the ship, which is apparently running. look at the smoke coming off of the smokestack. let's start off with ebay. they are upgrading ebay to a buy from a hold. and also, paypal has 123 million accounts that are actively engaged in mobile platforms. you nighted airlines. you know it ea's been a good ye for the airlines.
even with the downgrade, they are raising the price target. revenues are recovering. costs are higher not just because of fuel but because of the integration costs. third stock, cisco systems. they have pretty nice yield. 3.3%. that stock still under performing. biogen. here's the good news. the good news is that they are pricing the new multiple sclerosis drug. the drug still costs $54,600 a year. novartis? 6,000 a year.
and quicksilver resources, the oil company. signed a deal to sell a stake. that's actually a subsidiary of tokyo gas. now the japanese are buying in. down about 40%. and 2013. looking like a good year so far for a company that was founded back in 1886. we're talking about johnson & johnson. they won big approval for a new diabetes drug. it is hitting an all time high today. does this widows and orphans stock, safe by slow growth, have more room to run in the upside? when ever i hear about a name like this hitting all time highs it makes me nervous. do i have reason to be?
>> that's a great question. i think actually, i don't believe you have reason to be nervous just yet. j & j has been in the doldrums for the last year. i happen to think that certainly under new management, the new ceo, things are turning. it's about like that tanker up in maine. things are turning around. al beit a little bit slowly. you will also see opportunity for margin expansion. one comes from the pharmaceutical area and you mentioned it's a new diabetes drug. >> there are two ways to get that tanker off of that bridge. you can pull it out there whole hog, or you can chop it up.
>> that's a great, great question. it's a discussion point that gets talked about quite frequently. it strikes me if you want that widows and orphans idea, you want to keep it together. remember sometimes it's really good. you make good drugs your rates move up. and then you have something called a patent expiring. and often times you don't have new drugs to help you over that patent expiring. you don't have that situation with consumer and the device world. that aggregates a lot of the ups and downs. so i think for j & j from a global perspective, it's probably better to keep them together. that doesn't mean that every other company should do the same but in this case it might be just a little different. >> bottom line, we can still buy
the stock and sleep at night. >> i think so. and more importantly, if i'm right, and that tanker is turning, you ought to be able to get good growth prospect. >> tony, thank you very much. do appreciate it. >> thanks. >> still ahead on "street signs," a can't miss down under video of what might be the world's stupidist criminal. >> and investment clubs are back. first let's get to bill. >> all right. so coming up at the top of the hour on the bell, netflix was the best s&p 500 stock in the first quarter while rival coin star has been the most shorted stock. also, former defense secretary leone panetta describes why the u.s. is facing a potential cyber >> and the digital currency has surpassed the value of 20
national currencies around the world. could it challenge the dollar? she's back. maria and i look forward to seeing you. brian sul van and "stree signs" is back right after this. ♪ ♪ here we are, me and you ♪ on the road ♪ and we know that it goes on and on ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of making memories and keeping promises. ask your financial professional how lincoln financial
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>> >> we're going to do this all week. today's darwin award goes to this purse snatcher. he is running away from a heist, right into a glass door. classic. perhaps he's not as dumb as he seems because he still managed to get away in a stolen car. by the way, we plan to bring you one nugget of news like this every single day until mandy gets back on a freighter and comes back to "street signs." >> we started with the theme from "happy days," and maybe it's appropriate. what's going on joanie? >> well, chachie, meet the guys of chicago. mostly guys. nick saw his 401(k) take a big
hit and he started an investment club. >> they're definitely going sideways. it's going to be unsustainable. >> all right. parabollic. members do not pool their money but manage their portfolios. he has recovered all of his losses and was up 20% last year but the club thinks the market is now overbought and they want to figure out how to survive. >> when we first started we only knew how to buy stocks then we learned how to sell and then options and then the options strategies. the straddles and the spreads. >> municipal governments are broke. state governments are broke. the fed reral governments are broke. look out there's going to be higher taxes. >> it doesn't matter to me if the market will go up or down. i could hedge, i could short, i could loan, i could do options
and futures. that's the greatest thing. >> i wish i had known this club like five or ten years ago. it would save me a lot of money and headaches. >> club membership, which is over 300, ticks up when the market goes down. fear is more of a motivator than greed. if the investment clubs thinks we're at the top, whoa. >> i know. but it's -- on one hand they see us at the top so maybe that makes me feel more comfortable. maybe we're not but because there is more clubs maybe we are. we are either at the top or not. i am very confident in saying that. >> i'm with you on that one. we can agree on that one thing and that one thing only. >> you know jump the shark came from happy days. >> yes, i know. when fonzie was on the motorcycle. if it's about television i know it. >> that is true. >> all right. love you. >> joanie does love chachie.
we know that. if you invested in apple when it ipo ipo'd, you would be sitting on a pile of gold coins. brian shackman is on deck. he will join us when street signs returns. we went out and asked people a simple question: how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us.
>> >> 37 years ago today, a little company called apple was born. the apple one was the first ever single circuit board computer, sold without a monitor or keyboard. it went on sale for the superstishs place for $666.66. they advanced from that and four years after that point the company went public. if you bought 100 bucks worth of apple stock, you would be sitting on 15,936 bucks right now. big money off $100 investment.
if you had invested the same $100, you would have almost the exact same amount of money. hard to believe. especially for a company, dell, that has not done well in the stock market for, you know, a decade.point. if it can happen with those two names, are there others out there ready for that to happen to them? let us ask cnbc contributor jeff kilborg. i brought up the dell reference because we would probably say apple would be here and dell would be here because dell hasn't done squat for about ten years. i was just trying to kind of show the power of time. do those types of companies and returns still exist today? >> well, so it's a great illustration. you see that perceived versus -- actually the same. we do see one opportunity outside of a solely ipo. we do have a company we think may have potential growth. vm ware. a very big, big broad
perspective. >> vm ware. okay. i'm going to challenge you. i understand the cloud. i understand the enterprise. i get all that. but to have those kinds of gains, you really think vm ware is sitting on the cusp of that type of, say, 20 year future? >> i'm not going to say there'll ever be another apple. it's hard to replicate apple. even though we're seeing a price discovery rate back down in the $400 level. eight of ten businesses right now are investing into the cloud. a year or two ago, sully, people don't know what the cloud was. now people are getting their arms around it. they're seeing the cost efficiency. they're pursuing it. eight of ten companies -- they may remake that song to get into the cloud, sully. >> is it going to be all about the cloud, though, jeff? i can throw out some, you know, rolling stone song titles. but i won't. >> it's a great question. look at amazon. they're getting into the private cloud. all these companies going into the cloud space, i think that's where everything is going. more importantly, vm ware.
personally i have an apple laptop. what they do is a virtualization component. the software. that allows my apple to run as a pc. now they've kind of stumbled on the process that also can go in and kind of replace some of these big servers. some of these companies don't need the multitask servers. they're hitting that. they're also getting in the hybrid cloud. we're going to talk more and more about clouds. that exactly where the businesses are going. >> do you see any more starbuckses out there? not tech. harder to build on a brick and mortar type business. do you think there's any starbucks out there? >> it's hard to say. there's always a space that's going to creep up on you. what we have said ten years ago, is there a facebook. you couldn't even fathom the thought of facebook. there is something coming down the pipe. i think it is in tech, sully. i don't think the brick and mortar competition in that space. we're going to have to wait and see. technology evolves.
we have some great minds here in the united states of america. we need to continue to pursue the young companies in the venture space. >> i guess we'll have to look at it with faraway eyes. jeff kilburg. facebook apparently making a big announcement later on this week. a little tease right now with julia boorstin. >> reporter: brian, facebook is getting ready to unveil a new operating system for android phones. sources tell me it will effectually give users the option of making facebook your home screen. facebook wants users to spend more time with its mobile services including texting, voice calling, e-mail and eventually search. 680 million people use facebook on mobile devices every month. the question is, how many people will want to use facebook for all of their communication and how the software could boost facebook's revenue. analysts whom we've talked to are reserving judgment until they see the new software thursday. the half dozen we talked to say it will be positive if facebook can drive user engagement.
facebook bear rich greenfield, an analyst at pbtig, cautions people are so used to going to different apps for different services, he cautions whether people will want to use facebook for their home screen. breaking news out of north korea. u.s. defense officials telling nbc news the u.s. navy is shifting the guided missile destroyer "u.s.s. fitzgerald" in the pacific ocean. the fitzgerald is capable of intercepting and destroying a missile should north korea decide to fire one. nbc news reports u.s. defense officials insist there is nothing to indicate north korea is on the verge of another launch. remember, fitzgerald was also moved back in december of last
year to be in a position to defend against the impending north korean rocket launch. differentiate rocket from missile. let's take a look at the south korean currency, the yuan. it is just about 4:00 in the morning although currencies trade 24/7. kind of surprising. haven't seen a big move in the yuan. to to wait and see if tomorrow morning's going to bring big moves in big companies like hyundai and samsung. u.s. defense shifting. "u.s.s. fitzgerald" in the pacific ocean. up next, we're going to talk about the big bucks in baseball. i'm going to tell brian shactman why his red sox are going to stink this year. and i will tell you which team will win the world series. incredible, but true. everyone's retirement dream is different;
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it is baseball's it is baseball's opening day. right now the two biggest rivals in baseball are going head to head. the red sox up 4-2 on the yankees. but is this the year where the red sox/yankees rivalry doesn't even matter? let us bring in the sultan of schact. brian shactman. both teams are going to stink, aren't they? >> let me give you the argument for the yankees stinking. you tell me about the red sox. alex rodriguez, mark teixeira, derek jeter, curtis granderson and phil hughes all hurt. more than $90 million in salary not playing today. who knows when they'll all be back in the lineup. a-rod might be done for good.
competitive balance in baseball, whether it's revenue sharing because of the big tv money or here at mlb advanced media where they say they elevate each individual team's value by $200 million, you have buster posey getting $167 million from san francisco. justin verlander $180 million from detroit. elvis andrus $120 million from the texas rangers. it's not just the red sox, angels and yankees making the signings. >> i would argue this. no offense to your sox. they always beat my angels every single game. isn't that good for baseball? isn't it maybe good if the yankees come down a bit? no offense. that way maybe other teams can elevate. >> there's absolutely no doubt about that, brian. actually, if you talk to people maybe not inside the yankees but maybe inside the red sox, they're kind of embracing being underdogs again. it was just difficult to have that laser, target on chest every single year. yes. but you don't want to have the houston astros spending $25 million a year. i think there are more teams that can win. 's